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Cup Corner – Bristol Fantasy Forecast
by Ron Engel 08/19/09
BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Sharpie 500, Saturday August 22, 2009

Which drivers have a decent shot at capturing the crown this weekend?  Read on for analysis, predictions, what to watch, and other fan-interest stories.

NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers will engage in old-fashioned “Saturday night stock car racing at the short track” this weekend, with the annual late-summer visit to Bristol Motor Speedway. The hair-raising, temper-flaring, crash-inducing nature of Bristol will test driver’s patience to the
fullest. But perhaps the most critical nature of this event is that the drivers must be mentally alert every foot of every lap for 500 laps. You cannot just coast around, run your laps on your time, and expect to finish in one piece. You relax, you crash.

The Sharpie 500 is the second and final appearance at Bristol this year. Bristol ran the first of many legendary Cup races on July 30th, 1961, and has been thrilling fans ever since. Dubbed the “World’s Fastest Half Mile”, this track boasts 36 degrees of banking in the turns and 16 degrees on the straightaways.

As I see it, the following drivers have the best chance of pulling out a top finish this Saturday. I have compiled my ranking by analyzing drivers’ success at this track and other short tracks such as Martinsville and Richmond, then adding momentum into the mix by factoring in results from the last month of racing. I also factor in key driver stats from their most recent runs at Bristol.

TOP TWENTY-FIVE
1)24Jeff Gordon
2)11Denny Hamlin
3)18Kyle Busch
4)14Tony Stewart
5)99Carl Edwards
6)33Clint Bowyer
7)48Jimmie Johnson
8)5Mark Martin
9)29Kevin Harvick
10)39Ryan Newman
11)88Dale Earnhardt Jr.
12)9Kasey Kahne
13)17Matt Kenseth
14)16Greg Biffle
15)42Juan Pablo Montoya
16)31Jeff Burton
17)2Kurt Busch
18)47Marcos Ambrose
19)83Brian Vickers
20)00David Reutimann
21)07Casey Mears
22)26Jamie McMurray
23)20Joey Logano
24)44A.J. Allmendinger
25)77Sam Hornish Jr.



SELECTED BRISTOL DRIVER STATS
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Five wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 11.3
• Average Running Position of 8.1, second-best
• Driver Rating of 103.8, second-best
• 164 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.331 mph, fourth-fastest
• Series-high 3,957 Laps in the Top 15 (87.7%)
• Series-high 174 Quality Passes

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• Two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 12.6
• Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 99.7, fifth-best
• 216 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 263 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.443 mph, second-fastest
• 131 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)
• Two wins, four top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 11.2
• Average Running Position of 13.4, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 103.2, third-best
• Series-high 344 Fastest Laps Run
• 264 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.339 mph, third-fastest
• 2,896 Laps in the Top 15 (64.2%), sixth-most
• 156 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 16.4
• Average Running Position of 12.0, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 99.9, fourth-best
• 215 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 274 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.318 mph, fifth-fastest
• 2,852 Laps in the Top 15 (63.2%), eighth-most
• 159 Quality Passes, third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
• Two wins, three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.9
• Average Running Position of 13.3, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.0, 10th-best
• 215 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.068 mph, 12th-fastest
• 3,180 Laps in the Top 15 (70.5%), fifth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
• One win, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 10.8
• Average Running Position of 11.9, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.1, eighth-best
• 165 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 306 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.285 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,244 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9%), fourth-most
• 147 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
• Two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 19.3
• Driver Rating of 91.5, ninth-best
• 152 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• 260 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• 2,600 Laps in the Top 15 (57.6%), 13th-most
• 140 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• Two wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.3
• Average Running Position of 11.3, third-best
• Driver Rating of 97.7, seventh-best
• 224 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.177 mph, eighth-fastest
• 3,534 Laps in the Top 15 (78.3%), second-most
• 135 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Four top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 12.1
• Average Running Position of 12.0, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.0, sixth-best
• 193 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 3,470 Laps in the Top 15 (76.9%), third-most
• 173 Quality Passes, second-most

Marcos Ambrose (No. 47 Little Debbie/Kingsford/Clorox Toyota)
• One top 10
• Average finish of 10.0
• Series-best Average Running Position of 5.9
• Series-best Driver Rating of 108.4
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 114.456 mph

BRISTOL HIGHLIGHTS
• Bristol held its first NASCAR Sprint Cup
Series race on July 30, 1961.
• The first night race was held in the fall
of 1978.
• The track surface was changed from
asphalt to concrete in 1992.
• There have been 42 different pole
winners, led by Cale Yarborough (nine);
19 drivers have more than one. Mark
Martin needs one more pole to tie
Yarborough’s mark. He won his eighth
pole in this season’s March race.
• 37 different drivers have won races at
Bristol, led by Darrell Waltrip (12); 16
drivers have more than one victory there.
• The race winner has started from the pole 22 times, the most productive starting position.
• 79 of 97 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 51 from the first four spots.
• Only one active driver averages a top-10 finish: Marcos Ambrose. Ambrose finished 10th earlier this season, his only Bristol start thus far.


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